In the gambling casinos around the world, in Las Vegas, Monaco, the Bahamas, Macao, and others, gamblers are always calculating the odds on each of their bets, in the hope of increasing their chances of winning. While no bet is a sure thing, astute gamblers fervently believe that, by intelligently calculating the odds on each bet, they can “beat the house”. In most endeavors in life, from choosing a spouse to selecting a vocation, calculating the odds of success is commonplace. While a person’s calculations may not be accurate or true, an attempt at increasing one’s chances for success is a wise idea, whether one is betting at a casino, seeking a spouse, or arranging a business deal.
In the 17th century, the brilliant French scientist, Blaise Pascal, developed the mathematical theory of probability. Pascal carried forward his theory to include the subject of the existence of God. In his notable work, “Pensees,” Pascal proposed a theory on the probability of the existence of God; this theory has become known as Pascal’s Wager and can be stated as follows.
Either God exists or He does not exist so each person must decide to believe in God or not to believe. There is no middle ground. Either God exists or He does not.
If one chooses to believe that God does not exist, then at death he faces the consequences of his nonbelief. If in fact there is no God, then he faces non-existence and that is the end of the matter. However, if God does exist, then he faces eternal damnation for rejecting God. In either case, he loses. On the other hand, if he accepts the existence of God and acts accordingly, at death, assuming that God does exist, then he will receive the rewards of his belief in God. On the other hand, if God does not exist, his belief in God does him no harm. Thus Pascal’s advise to all is to act as if God does exist; it is known as the “act as if” approach.
In summary, regarding the existence of God, Pascal, after calculating the odds, strongly suggests that everyone should act as if God exists, for it is only by believing in God that one can achieve success – win the bet. If one chooses to bet against the existence of God, the result is a total loss.
Pascal believed so strongly in his wager that he stated, “This is conclusive, and if men are capable of any truth, this is it.” It seems that Pascal’s advise to “act as if” God does exist is based upon a sound calculation of the odds. The astute calculator of odds would indeed favor Pascal’s wager and choose God.
Suggested reading
- Chapter 6 in Peter Kreeft’s “Fundamentals of the Faith” contains a more thorough discussion of Pascal’s Wager.
- Fr. Kenneth Baker’s article, “Blaise Pascal’s Wager”, is accessible on the Internet